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What's a sports game developer supposed to do when the sport they simulate stops making sense? This is the question facing 2K Sports after a bizarre offseason in the NBA left the league in chaos. But 2K has to put out their yearly product, and NBA 2K20 came out like clockwork, over a month before the start of the season and with a league it's supposed to model that may unmodelable. Although when your goal is selling loot boxes, why bother?

Well, it is the only major basketball sim in town, so: What does NBA 2K20 predict for the future?

Total chaos!

First, let's talk about what the chaos means. Since the Golden State Warriors won their first championship of their current run four years ago, the NBA was stable: The Warriors were major favorites, and a small handful of teams served as their competition — usually the Cleveland Cavaliers, the San Antonio Spurs, and the Houston Rockets.

In the 2018-19 season, a few new competitors arose after Cleveland fell apart, and there was a clear set of six clubs at the top of the league: the Warriors and Rockets in the West, and the Philadelphia 76ers, Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, and Toronto Raptors in the East. The season largely progressed along these predictive lines — the Celtics and Rockets disappointed in the regular season, yes, but by the time the playoffs came around, these teams only lost to one another, with the Toronto Raptors beating the injury-riddled Warriors in the Finals.

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NBA 2K19 largely modeled this — using its last patch (with a few injuries added), those six teams were in the top nine, with only the Lost Angeles Lakers, Spurs, and the disappointing Oklahoma Thunder having high team ratings. In other words, the 2K19 season was fairly easy to predict in broad strokes from the outside, and NBA 2K19 mostly did so.

But in the offseason, the league went wild with trades and free agency — the Warriors, the dominant team of the past half-decade, got shattered by injury and free agency. The basic trend of the offseason what that the superteam model — a team with three or four All-Stars and not much depth — gave way to multiple "dynamic duos" with two stars and a strong cast of role-players. Almost every superteam like the Warriors or Celtics got weaker, while almost every pretty good team like the Utah Jazz or the Brooklyn Nets got better, and a few mediocre teams like the Lakers got much better. And several of the consistent contenders took big risks that might or might not work, like the Rockets trading for mercurial guard Russell Westbrook.

It all adds up to this: The NBA has up to a dozen teams that seem like they could have a shot to win the title, and a bunch more who should be quite good. This is especially the case in the Western Conference, where seven teams — the Warriors, Lakers, Clippers, Rockets, Jazz, Nuggets, and Trail Blazers — can all go into the season thinking they should at least make the conference finals (only two teams will). The NBA itself is advertising how "the basketball world has changed" with an ad showcasing five of the most-altered teams to build hype for the season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daNqUCJD2EM&feature=youtu.be

In a league that's traditionally been one where massive, years-long dynasties clash with one another, this is a level of chaos that hasn't been seen since probably the 1999 season, when Michael Jordan's retirement and a lockout-shortened season essentially guaranteed chaos.

2K's response

So how does NBA 2K attempt to model this? Well, in one way, oddly — long-term injuries are one of the biggest stories of the league, in particular with the Kevin Durant, arguably the best player alive right now, almost certain to miss the entire year — but 2K doesn't actually have those injuries in the game right now (though I assume they'll show up when the season starts). So I had to manually add six injuries to stars: roughly two months for Victor Oladipo (Indiana), four months for Jusuf Nurkic (Portland), six for Klay Thompson (Golden State), eight for Durant (Brooklyn), 10 for John Wall (Washington), and the season for DeMarcus Cousins (LA Lakers) — estimates all, but pretty essential for the story of the league right now. I also fiddled with these numbers up and down to give different potential outcomes, such as if Thompson comes back midseason or doesn't come at all. (Note: These simulations were mostly done in mid-September, so new patches may change things.)

I also fiddled with a few players' positions because NBA 2K20 would consistently put much worse players over good players' secondary roles. For example, I switched the Sixers' Josh Richardson to shooting guard, so that the giant five starters Philadelphia expects to run with will load into the starting lineup, instead of unproven rookie Matisse Thybulle.

That done, there's a major way NBA 2K20 makes an initial prediction: the team rating. Now, this is an imperfect representation of how good a team is, basically a messy average of the game's complicated set of ratings for individual players. In other words, it might say a team has a 98 rating because of players' stats, but it won't necessarily simulate that team as being better than a team with a 90 rating. But it's still a good quick shorthand.

Which is all a long way of saying that NBA 2K really, really likes the Los Angeles Lakers.

A year ago, the Lakers signed Lebron James, finally arresting their post-Kobe Bryant collapse that had made them hilariously incompetent. NBA 2K19 gave them a team rating of 90 — a point above the Bucks, who had the best record in the league — and they hilariously and not that surprisingly missed the playoffs. It turns out even Lebron needs teammates. So this past offseason, the Lakers traded almost all their promising young players to New Orleans for another superstar, Anthony Davis. 2K loves this, with NBA 2K20 giving the Lakers its highest rating of 97. This is despite that, although James and Davis are indeed superstars, the Lakers traded … almost every other decent player on their roster. In real life, this is an interesting team with a ton of question marks that has championship potential if it can answer those. In 2K's world, the Lakers are the massive favorites.

Above: The Lakers start out every "Power Rankings" as the favorites, and that's not big market bias.

Some more strange choices await. The Bucks have an 89 rating, the ninth-best team in the league, same as the prior season … despite that they had the best record in the league and are almost certain to compete at the same level again. 2K still loves the Spurs, a team that's been stuck at "pretty good" since losing Kawhi Leonard in real life, but rated them as the fifth-best team in the league both last season and this.

Further weirdness awaits deeper down. The Nuggets were the surprise team of last season, finishing second in the West with a young core that should only get better. And somehow, they have a lower rating in 2K20 than in 2K19, with an 84 that puts them right in the middle of the league. They're just ahead of the Washington Wizards with an 83 rating, despite the Wizards being widely expected to be one of the few teams without any hope this season. (The simulation, however, successfully separates these two.)

Next page: how I tested the simulation, and a summary of results! After that, a team-by-team analysis.

How I tested 2K20

So, clearly, the limited preseason predictions are rather different from what most experts might say. But who's to say the experts are more right than the game? That's one major question. The second is: What happens when you actually simulate the games in 2K?

Actually, simulating the season isn't enough. Injuries are on, which makes it far too random to do just once. What happens when you simulate 20 seasons in NBA 2K20? (My initial goal was to sim at least 30 seasons, but the differences in each season were so slim that this seemed unnecessary. But it's a hell of a lot better than one season: Suck it, New York Times!)

Here's what I did. I simmed two seasons where I adjusted rotations for injury and performed trades myself. I also did two more where I did trades, but let the rotations occur automatically. Then 16 more where the game controlled those details and I just let the chips fall. I did continually adjust the CPU's trade tendencies until I could get stars like Bradley Beal or Kevin Love actually traded, but this didn't happen (with one exception) no matter how far I raised it — the biggest name I saw traded consistently, without my input was the Thunder's Steven Adams. (The exception was one season where the Warriors traded Draymond Green to the Bulls for Zach LaVine. That was weird, but an extreme aberration.)

At the end, I noted each team's regular season record, which I averaged out. I also noted the highest and lowest win totals to give a good idea of how varied teams could go. (The raw data is available in the spreadsheet.)

Then, in order to calculate playoff success, I used a simple linear measure of giving a point for a team making the playoffs, then another point for each series they won, which seems, subjectively, to be a reasonable representation of how success is perceived. The championship-winning Raptors would get 5 points, while the runner-up Warriors getting 4 points would have had twice as successful of a playoff run as the Rocket team they beat in the second round. With 20 seasons simmed, this made for a really good conceptual set of numbers: 100 would be a team that wins every championship, 20 would be a team that just makes the playoffs every year, while anything above 40 would be a superb team that wins more playoff series than it loses. As a point of comparison, the Popovich Spurs, our real-life multigenerational dynasty, would have had a Playoff Point total of 56 from 1999-2018 — that's five championships and most years as a contender.

Also worth noting: This method would be biased toward Eastern teams, as thanks to the NBA's unbalanced schedule, they'd play each other more often in the regular season and only each other in the playoffs until the Finals. By every subjective estimate, the East is somewhat weaker both in terms of number of championship contenders (the West has the seven mentioned above with a few maybes, while the East has two definite contenders and a bunch of maybes) and in top-to-bottom strength — four of the five teams expected to definitely just be bad, the Hornets, Knicks, Cavaliers, and Wizards — are in the East (and the Grizzlies in the West).

This pattern continues in NBA 2K20, with the West being generally stronger and occasionally, hilariously so — the best of these being one simmed season when the Spurs missed the playoffs with 48 wins in the West, a total which would have have had them in third, one game out of second place, in the East that season. This is just the way the NBA works and has worked for two decades now, and only advanced statistical analysis beyond the scope of this article could begin to adjust for it.

Results

You can see all 30 teams ranked, with their wins and playoff totals, as well as analysis on the next page. The Google Doc with the raw data is also here. But here are the biggest conclusions:

  • For better or for worse, 2K didn't adjust its simulation after an offseason left the league without a clear hierarchy. There's a pecking order in the game's simulation.
  • The Lakers are at the top of that list — the game treats them as dominant force to the level that the question is "can they lose?" — much more on this on the next page.
  • Three other teams are contenders who win championships and make multiple Finals: the 76ers, Clippers, and Rockets. The Sixers are the only Eastern team to win it all, although the Bucks and the Nets (with a recovered KD) also make the Finals. The Blazers also win once, but that seems to be a (welcome!) fluke.

Above: Blazers are in the house! At least, in one season in 2K20. (I think AD was injured in this one)

  • The six teams above, minus Portland, are the only teams to make the playoffs every year. The Blazers, plus the Warriors, Nuggets, and Celtics all make the playoffs in at least 17 of the 20 simmed seasons.
  • Beyond the Lakers, the simulation seems to really like the Thunder and the Bulls a lot more than most oddsmakers would. It also really dislikes the Pacers, Heat, and Jazz.
  • Six teams fail to make the playoffs in any of the 20 simmed seasons: the Kings, Mavericks, Wizards, Grizzlies, Hornets, and Cavaliers. The latter four are not a surprise — they're probably going to be the worst teams in the league. But the Kings and Mavs, however, are — these are exciting young teams for which it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see take the next step.
  • Yes, Knicks fans, this means 2K thinks you can make the playoffs (once, with 38 wins). The Suns and Hawks surprisingly sneak in a couple times.
  • I did not see huge differences in games where I controlled rotations and/or trades versus pure simulations — that Blazers championship came without me trading for Kevin Love or the like. The one exception to this is the Thunder improving notably when I started both Roberson and Gilgeous-Alexander — something that continued when I adjusted Roberson's position so the game would automatically slot him in at small forward.
  • While most of the decisions made within the game are defensible individually, they add up to a much more predictable simulation than NBA observers or oddsmakers might expect. Seeing the Lakers and Sixers in the Finals almost every time may test players' patience, depending on how they play and how the real season plays out — although both may lead to patches from 2K.

On the next page, the first set of team-by-team results, plus an experiment

Westlake's NBA win odds, Sep 24th 2019

Above: Westlake's NBA win odds, Sep 24th 2019

Teams are ranked here by average number of regular season wins within the simulation. The statline reads: (Average Wins, Vegas Differential, High-Low wins, Playoff Points, Championships where applicable) or (AW, VD, H/L, PP, 💍). The Vegas Differential is the average wins minus Vegas' current win total odds — I used Westgate's here from September 24, which I've also screenshotted in case it changes.

If you'd like a decent rundown of what "the experts" think as well, check out ESPN's recent consolidated predictions. Lots of interesting stuff in there about how chaotic things might get, but my favorite is that they predict the Lakers to finish fifth in the West in the regular season … but give them the fourth-best chance of winning the championship.

1. Los Angeles Lakers (AW: 63.4, VD +13.4, HL 71/53, PP 71, 💍8)

I'll give this to 2K — their Overall Rating for the Lakers, better than every other team in the league, is absolutely how the Lakers are treated. Los Angeles is the dominant team in the NBA — usually having the best record in the league, often winning the championship, usually getting the MVP and Coach of the Year, and a few times, chasing the Warriors' record of 73 regular-season wins. In other words, 2K expects this to be one of the greatest teams of all time — that ridiculous Playoff Points of 71 is significantly higher than that Spurs number I used as a baseline for excellence above.

At the core of this process: the Lakers' role-players are all rated as their best-case-scenario. Danny Green, of course, is known to be a perfect complementary piece to a contender, but the rest? Kuzma is a borderline All-Star in the game; McGee, Howard, and Rondo are great role-players; Bradley and Caldwell-Pope are useful contributors. All of these things are dubious, all combined, they make the Lakers so good that even long-term injuries to either Lebron or AD don't excessively derail the Lakers in the regular season, and only those seem to stop them from major playoff success. (I even tested how good those role-players were in an experiment — see below.)

Verdict: Definitely overrated. The Lakers are certainly in the top six or so of contenders by most accounts, but they're not clearly above the others (Sixers, Bucks, Rockets, Warriors, Clippers, maybe Jazz). A Twitter friend told me that 2K always overrated Lebron's role players and the Lakers — a ruthless combination in this incarnation of the game — and one that I had to test.

The Experiment

After a dozen or so seasons, I got sick of seeing the Lakers being so dominant, while several teams, particularly the Pacers, were treated so poorly. This seemed to happen even when the Lakers had one or two injuries — only multiple major injuries at a time derailed them. This, to me, indicated that the game thought that the Lakers were a good team even without Lebron and Davis. So I decided to trade them for replacement-level stars. Conveniently, the other team I was frustrated with, the Pacers, has two stars that fit the bill perfectly: Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner, who fill similar roles but would never be mistaken for being as great currently.

I traded them for each other and simmed the season. I expected, if the Lakers' role players were good, they'd be a really good team still — 50-55 wins. I expected similarly from the Pacers — bad role-players but better stars. (I also turned off Oladipo's injury, and made sure none of the four stars involved had season-ending injuries during this sim.)

The results were close to what I expected. Los Angeles had 50 wins, and Indiana had 60. The latter, I realized, was probably expected based on the weakness of the East, while the former would still be considered a really good season and a potential championship contender.

Above: What happens in NBA 2K20 when I trade the Lakers' stars for the Pacers'?

There are a lot of ways to interpret the data here, and with just one simmed season, it's not a good sample size. But given the struggles of Indiana to break even .500, the fact that their stars can lead a team to 50 wins in the more-difficult West is extremely telling. My general takeaway from this: NBA 2K20 believes that the Lakers' role-players and infrastructure are at least 10 wins better than Indiana's. Given that I'd take Sabonis and Brogdon over any two non-star Lakers, and that Vogel versus McMillan as coaches is probably a wash … this seems absurd.

2. Houston Rockets (AW 58.6, VD +4.1, H/L 66/51, PP 47, 💍1)

A team that two years ago probably should have won the championship added Russell Westbrook and went all-in again, and the game manifests that as a top-four contender: The Rockets are consistently in the top half of the West and regularly winning playoff series, even the occasional championship.

As a side note, when running seasons where I managed injuries, and then paying attention to other sims, I almost never saw a Rockets player more important than Eric Gordon have a major injury. This, I think, explains why their regular season rating is notably better than their (still-good!) playoff performance.

Verdict: Just about on the money. I definitely think the Rockets are almost certainly to be in the mix like this throughout the season — my only issue is that they're a bit too consistent, when there's a small chance that the Westbrook experiment will fail miserably.

3. Philadelphia 76ers (AW: 57.75, VD +2.75, HL 67/49, PP 76, 💍5)

In the simulation, the Sixers are to the East what the Lakers are to the West: definitely the best team in their conference, but definitely weaker, just like their conference. They usually lead the East, often make the Finals, and sneak away with a good number of championships. Brett Brown will sometimes even get Coach of the Year.

But the real reason they're so dominant — a higher Playoff Points than the Lakers! — is that the rest of the East is much weaker in the game than we might expect. Their lead rival, the Bucks, are inconsistent, while possible contenders in reality like the Pacers and Heat rarely make the playoffs in the game.

Verdict: A bit overrated. The Sixers are a monster team on paper, quite literally, with their five starters all being much taller than average and with terrifying wingspans. They're definitely one of the strongest championship contenders. The only two reasons I think they're overvalued: They're a bit too consistent, as they have major offensive questions without Redick and Butler; and the rest of the East is presented as a bit too weak, so the Sixers are almost always the team that takes advantage.

4. Los Angeles Clippers (AW 56.1, VD +1.6, H/L 64/48, PP 55, 💍5)

With two superstars in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George added to a group of very good role players, the Clippers are probably the only team everyone agrees should be a championship contender.

The Clippers are treated as an excellent team, always making the playoffs in the top half of the West, and sometimes busting through and winning the championship.

Verdict: A bit underrated, but only because the Lakers are so much better. The Clippers are probably the second-best team in the West in the game, but they're clearly behind their rivals. The raw numbers are probably right, but being the fourth-best team is a bit off.

5. Milwaukee Bucks (AW 50.85, VD -7.15, H/L 64/42, PP 42)

The Bucks' odd 89 rating, carried over from NBA 2K19, makes even less sense here. This team has arguably the best player in the league, Giannis; had the best record in the league last season; and made the conference finals. Losing some key role players in Brogdon and Mirotic hurts, but there's no reason to expect that this team won't be a contender in the upcoming season … except that 2K, apparently, doesn't.

While they do make the playoffs consistently, the Bucks vary wildly between being a .500 team and a good contender. They almost never lead the conference, let alone the league, and they don't win the championship, only managing a couple Finals appearances. Giannis does win the MVP decently regularly, but that's small consolation. Even the years when they do really well in the regular season, they flame out in the playoffs.

Verdict: Underrated. Some of the Bucks' inconsistency can be blamed on 2K thinking they're injury-prone, especially George Hill and Brook Lopez, but even with that, this team should be treated as at least co-favorites in the East with the Sixers. Instead, they're one of half a dozen mid-tier playoff teams in the East. Ouch.

6. Golden State Warriors (AW 48.5, VD 0, H/L 59/37, PP 32)

The Warriors head into the season one of the most fascinating teams in the league, having lost Durant and Andre Iguodala, but added D'Angelo Russell, in addition to waiting for Thompson to heal.

NBA 2K20 largely models this, with the Warriors being a wild card, but consistently good, throughout the West — sometimes taking a higher seed, sometimes sneaking into the bottom of the playoffs and wreaking havoc. And Steph, well, galaxy mode Steph is an MVP candidate.

Above: The Warriors going on a 20-game winning streak when Klay Thompson gets healthy? Sounds about right.

Verdict: Exactly right on the averages (look at that perfect Vegas Differential!), a bit off on the variations. Look, we know what a core of Steph, Klay, and Dray can do in real life: They won 73 games and a championship, albeit in different seasons. But the Warriors never even make the Finals in my sims. There's also a version of this where their role-players flame out, the rest of the West is great, and they don't even make the playoffs — 2K only barely offers that. Still, in every simmed season, the Dubs do what I expect in most real seasons.

7. Portland Trail Blazers (AW: 46.85, VD +0.35, H/L 53/37, PP 26,  💍1)

The Blazers were the No. 3-seed in the West the last two seasons, and made the conference finals last year. With their core intact, and their third star, Jusuf Nurkic, returning from injury at some point, this should make them a major contender in the West. But as the rest of the West shifted their stars around in attempts to get slightly better, the Blazers only swapped role players. Of the seven major Western contenders, Portland may have the least exciting narrative … but that doesn't mean they're not a player.

NBA 2K20 models this: The Blazers are consistently in the mix in the Western Conference, rarely missing the playoffs, but also once winning a championship(!). Two interesting things I've noticed: Portland almost always starts the season poorly, then surges in the middle months; and that their record tends to be similar whether I made major trades for Kevin Love or Kelly Olynyk or keep their intact.

Verdict: Exactly right. 2K models the Blazers as a team that could be a huge problem for their competitors, or one that might be easily dispatched.

8. Denver Nuggets (AW: 46.8, VD -6.2, H/L 57/34, PP 21)

The Nuggets are similar to the Blazers in that they're a team that did very well last season — second in the West, with a rapidly developing set of young stars — but one that mostly stood pat while almost every team around them changed dramatically.

Denver is one of those big seven Western Conference teams that all have a chance at being contenders, and 2K models that, though a bit weaker than the Blazers. Denver usually makes the playoffs, and they'll win a series occasionally, but only make the conference finals once.

Verdict: Slightly underrated. NBA and Nugget observer Matt Moore, aka Hardwood Paroxysm, has noticed that Denver's record last year was inflated by a lucky high number of wins in close games, and that may revert to the mean. That should, in his words, mean that the Nuggets will likely be a better team with a worse record. The record seems about right, but the better team idea — which would manifest in the playoffs — is off. (The culprit for that is likely a surprisingly low rating for shooting guard Gary Harris, who might well be a budding star, but 2K gives him a "pretty good starter" rating of 79.)

9. Utah Jazz (AW 44.9, VD -9.6, H/L 55/36, PP 23)

The Jazz have been a solid regular-season team in the West in the past couple of seasons, although not one that's had a ton of playoff success. Their additions of Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic upgrade the team at the exact positions that should push them from "solid" to "contender" — and they were one of the first teams over the chaotic summer to be seen that way.

But 2K tends to disagree, with the Jazz the weakest of the big seven Western Conference teams, even missing the playoffs if a few of the lower-tier franchises get frisky. They also never make the Finals, although they can cause some entertaining upsets.

Verdict: Undervalued. The pundits were swift to declare the Jazz a contender when they acquired Conley, though I'm a bit more skeptical. That said, this is not a team that should struggle to make the playoffs, and NBA 2K20 has that happen a bit too often (one-fifth of my seasons) for my liking.

10. Boston Celtics (AW 44.9, VD -4.6, H/L 57/34, PP 32)

For the past several seasons, Boston collected an amazing set of assets — stars in their prime, good young players, and draft picks. After making the conference finals twice, Boston seemed ready to make good on those assets. They had a superteam with three stars, multiple young role players, and a superb coach. But when it came to actually playing the games, those assets turnout out to be people, and people who really didn't get along or want to play tough basketball games together. That's bad!

Boston got rid of a few of those assets — especially annoying star Kyrie Irving — and enters the 2019-'20 season a bit sleeker, probably more fun, and probably a worse team on paper. The Celtics should have a wildly variable set of options, from being a contender to struggling to make the playoffs. 2K20 largely models this — the Celtics can compete for best record in the East or maybe make the conference finals, but they also might miss the playoffs.

Verdict: Dead on. Boston fans especially high on Brown and Tatum may think the team should have a championship ceiling, but that's pretty hard to see barring a sensational step forward. I'm cool with wild and frisky.

On the next (and last) page, the last 20 teams, including contenders that shouldn't be, the shockingly good Bulls, and the shockingly bad Pacers.

11. Brooklyn Nets (AW 44.3, VD +0.3, H/L 53/38, PP 43)

The Nets would be one of the most difficult teams to predict in the NBA in most situations — a good young team on the rise that trades a budding star in D'Angelo Russell for a legit, if mercurial, superstar in Kyrie Irving. But then you add in that they've added arguably the best player in the world, Kevin Durant, but one with an injury that may keep him out for possibly the entire season, and then maybe not even come back the same? There's a version of the Nets where KD returns at the end of the season and they blaze through the East playoffs, or a version where they stagnate and get a low seed … or miss the playoffs entirely.

2K models these alternatives pretty well — the best Nets do make the Finals a few times, while the team always makes the playoffs even if it occasionally does nothing in them. (In one of my funniest seasons, they got into the playoffs with 38 wins and then made the Finals with KD healthy. (These simulations were done before GM Sean Marks announced KD's return was unlikely this season. If you check out the full seasonal data, those in which KD didn't come back at all are the last 6 or 7. –Ed.)

Verdict: Just about right in the regular season, probably overrated in the playoffs — even without KD. This has much more to do with the game devaluing the East in general, especially the Bucks, who should be consistently a top-2 team in the conference. Instead, the Nets are occasionally put in that position, and they're even the second-best Eastern team by Playoff Points.

12. Toronto Raptors (AW 43, VD -3, H/L 54/35, PP 27)

The champs, like their defeated foes in the Finals Golden State, enter the season as a major wildcard having lost their superstar Kawhi Leonard in free agency. Are the role-players and budding/former stars enough to stay in contention? Will they flame out without Leonard as the glue holding them together? Is Pascal Siakam ready to be a superstar?

These huge questions make the Raptors tough to predict. NBA 2K20 generally has them as a playoff team, and one that can make the conference finals, but not a contender.

Verdict: Overrated, but not in and of themselves, because of their conference. I like the Raptors' numbers on their own, but because the East (outside the Sixers) is such a crapshoot, they end up with high playoff seeds a little too often.

13. Oklahoma City Thunder (AW 42.95, VD +11.45, H/L 52/27, PP 20)

The Thunder lost their two biggest stars — Russell Westbrook and Paul George — and acquired past and future (but not current) stars in return: Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This makes them a compelling team, and one where a best-case scenario of players who've been stuck in Westbook or others' shadows step up and make this a solid playoff team. (Also if top-tier defender Andre Roberson returns from injury successfully.) Worst-case scenario? CP3 is disengaged, Shai isn't quite ready, and the other players are good but not great, which is nowhere near good enough in a hyper-competitive West.

NBA 2K20 takes the best-case scenario at probably every level with the Thunder, making them not just a playoff team but also an occasional conference finals-level playoff team, and the last team with an above-.500 average win total.

Verdict: Overrated, but not quite so massively as the Vegas Differential might look like. OKC should be a solid team no matter what, but solid may look bad in the West. The difference between eighth-best, which they are here, and 12-best is not gonna be huge, and there's no reason the Thunder can't win that race.

14. San Antonio Spurs (AW 41.15, VD -6.35, H/L 50/35, PP 12)

The Spurs remain good, which on one hand seems like the most normal thing in the NBA world, but on the other, when you look at their aging or unheralded roster, is a huge shock. This is a team that due to injuries and free agency spent last season basically without a point guard, and then made the playoffs and made Derrick White look like a star-in-the-making. Are they good? I mean, yes, but should they be? Will it all fall apart?

NBA 2K20 basically splits the difference, making the Spurs the closest team to .500 in its sims, and basically making the question whether the West has room for them in the playoffs or not (usually not). Not only is their record consistently right in the middle, but their High/Low differential is the smallest in the game for a team that makes the playoffs regularly.

Verdict: The Spurs are consistently OK-to-pretty good. Without a superstar? That sounds right on the money.

15. Detroit Pistons (AW 40.7, VD +2.7, H/L 55/25, PP 18)

Last year, Detroit's big gambles on Blake Griffin and trading several of their young players paid dividends when they … made it into the playoffs on the last day. The Bucks then swept them. Without major changes from last year to this, the Pistons would seem to be stuck in roughly the same place.

By raw data, the Pistons largely stick with that — they won 41 games last season, and averaged that in my sims. But because the East is so surprisingly weak and inconsistent, occasionally the Pistons were a top-4 seed in the conference, and they make the playoffs three-quarters of the time. Their High/Low differential of 30 wins is the biggest of any simmed team, although to be fair, that 25-win season was a major aberration.

Verdict: Slightly overrated, but only because the rest of the East is underrated. In particular, Detroit's constant presence in the playoff race means they never trade Griffin, something that's very much on the table otherwise.

16. Chicago Bulls (AW 39.55, VD +6.05, H/L 48/30, PP 19)

After years of front-office chaos, the Bulls finally, perhaps accidentally, entered into a seemingly successful rebuilding phase. With budding stars like Wendell Carter and Lauri Markannen and other decent prospects, the Bulls seem to be on the right track to compete in the East in a few years …

… Except that NBA 2K20 thinks this is a playoff-ready team right now. The Bulls are regular competitors for playoff spots, and occasionally, they're an upper-tier Eastern Conference team, both in record and in playoff success, making the conference finals a few times.

Verdict: Waaaaayyyy overrated. Bafflingly so! Even the biggest Bulls fan probably thinks their best-case scenario is sneaking into the playoffs for some big-game experience for this young team. Yet 2K thinks they're in the scrum for Eastern contenders after the Sixers. I don't get it.

17. Orlando Magic (AW 38.95, VD -3.05, H/L 49/24, PP 20)

Last season, the Magic improved incrementally, just enough to get into the playoffs for the first time in years, giving the eventual champion Toronto a slight jolt before falling quickly. This offseason they … attempted to improve incrementally.

Making a mediocre East team slightly better would normally not seem to do much, but in 2K20's sim, where the entire conference after Philly is a total crapshoot? That means the Magic are actually a top-4 playoff team occasionally. And also miss the playoffs occasionally.

Verdict: Seems just about right, but in a way that's really hard to care about. That perfectly normal 20 Playoff Points sums it up.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (AW 37.65, VD +2.15, H/L 47/29, PP 3)

The young Wolves made the playoffs in 2018, then took a step back last year. But with star Jimmy Butler and coach Tom Thibodeau flaming out midseason, maybe last season was an aberration.

NBA 2K20 seems to think that might be the case, with Minnesota popping into the playoff race most seasons, although only making the big show three times.

Verdict: Even if Minnesota returns to its upward progress in the rebuild, the West is so ridiculous it seems difficult, but plausible, for this team to make the playoffs. Making it 3-out-of-20 seasons, with mid-30s wins most of the time? That sounds exactly right for this team — maybe the most exactly right of any team in the game.

19. New Orleans Pelicans (AW 37.35, VD -1.15, H/L 44/28, PP 3)

Many teams in the NBA blew up their rosters, but none did quite so spectacularly as the Pelicans, who: 1) won the NBA draft lottery and picked sure thing Zion Williamson, 2) traded Anthony Davis for three potentially good young Lakers, and 3) signed free agent vets who should be fantastic fits like Redick and Favors.

Above: Get used to Zion taking home hardware in NBA 2K20

On paper, the Pelicans should be a ton of fun, and if things click, a dark horse Western playoff team (and an almost certain one if they were in the East, bad luck). 2K generally models this, with this team (like Minnesota above) making the playoffs 3-of-20 times.

Verdict: A tiny bit overrated. The Pelicans probably should be in the mix for the playoffs, and probably should make them a few times. None of their seasons are outright bad in the sim, which seems like a reasonable real-world possibility with so many changes and unproven players in key roles.

20. Miami Heat (AW 36.45, VD -8.05, H/L 48/25, PP 8)

Miami was a borderline playoff team last year, although in the East, that's not a huge achievement. But for the last several years, they've been a team that plays hard, maybe sneaks into the playoffs, and generally makes their opponents have to work for everything.

The Heat added Jimmy Butler, who in one sense is the NBA's most blue-collar superstar, a man who never stops working oncourt, on both offense and defense. Alternately, they've added the NBA's biggest diva in Butler, who pushed his way out of both Chicago and Minnesota in a little over a year, then bailed on Philadelphia as well. This is a switch that could make the Heat a contender in the East, or at least a step behind the Bucks and Sixers. Or it's one that could leave them still spinning their wheels in the middle of nowhere, only with an unhappy star poisoning everything around them.

2K only models the mediocrity or the flameout — the one time the Heat actually do really well (48 wins), they lose in the first round.

Verdict: Not good enough, not at all. Having the Heat miss the playoffs half the time or more isn't a huge issue, but not having the potential for them to even make the conference finals is a whiff, and another reason the East is predictable in the game.

21. Indiana Pacers (AW: 36.05, VD -11.45, H/L 42/27, PP 12)

Last season, Indiana was in the mix for a top seed in the East. Their star, Victor Oladipo, got injured, and they stayed strong, playing roughly .500 ball. They didn't change their team too much — losing a few players like Thaddeus Young but adding Malcolm Brogdon. There's no reason to expect the Pacers to be significantly worse, and plenty of reason to think they might be a competitor in the East.

And yet … more than the Lakers, 2K just totally drops the ball on this one. The Pacers are barely even a playoff team, regardless of whether I have Oladipo come back earlier or later. They make the playoffs at the bottom of the East about half the time, but almost never crack .500. The only reason I can think of that this is the case is that I kept the "team chemistry" option on, and Indiana falls into a funk before Dipo comes back and never recovers. But plenty of teams, especially Portland, have consistently bad starts and then recover. Who knows!

Verdict: Terribly underrated, to the point where this might be the biggest point where the simulation fails. The experiment described above shows just how ridiculously undervalued the Pacers role players are, and the East being generally kinda boring flows from this.

22. Atlanta Hawks (AW 35.4, VD -0.6, 41/30, PP 5)

A few years ago, Atlanta was competing with Lebron and the Cavs as the best team in the East. But they got wiped out in the playoffs and pulled the trigger on a full rebuild. That rebuilt started coming into fruition late last season, with their youngsters Trae Young, John Collins, and Kevin Huertas looking like a potential competitive core for the future.

NBA 2K20, quite happily and unlike most other good young teams like the Nuggets or Kings, models that core getting consistently better, to the point where the Hawks manage to slip into the playoffs five times in my sims.

Verdict: Fine in and of themselves, but this team … team should probably not be treated in the same category as the Pacers and the Heat. Maybe I'm wrong, but it feels like Atlanta is probably another year away from sniffing the playoffs.

23. Phoenix Suns (AW 34.75, VD +5.25, 42/28, PP 2)

The Suns are interesting. Their chaotic front office and ownership situation makes them look like a total mess of a franchise, but on the court? They have two budding stars in Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton, plus a strong set of role players who are actually in their prime surrounding them. Does this mean the Suns are good? Probably not. Does this mean the Suns can be good? I mean, all the ingredients are there, right?

NBA 2K20 largely models this: The Suns do manage to play .500 ball in the tough West a few times and get into the playoffs. But like the Hawks, they seem like they're a year away.

Verdict: A little high, but mostly because the Suns are treated better than the Mavericks and the Kings — those are also two interesting young teams that I think most people would say are closer to the playoffs than Phoenix, but never sniff a playoff spot.

24. Sacramento Kings (AW 33.35, VD -5.15, 40/26, PP 0

After over a decade of disaster, last year's young Kings played fast, fun, effective basketball, winning a ton of fans and finishing ninth in the West. Normally, player development and building on relative success, you'd pick a team like that to make the playoffs this year. But things were very much not normal this offseason, with almost every other pretty good team in the West getting better, leaving Sacramento in a position where it's difficult to see them even competing for a playoff spot.

NBA 2K20 agrees with that, with the Kings never making the playoffs, and only really competing for a spot about a fourth of the time.

Verdict: Underrated. Yeah, it's tough to see the Kings making the playoffs, but it's not impossible — even if 2K simmed seasons say it is.

Above: NBA 2K20's Power Rankings seemed to have the Mavericks too low. But they're even worse than that in the game.

25. Dallas Mavericks (AW 30.3, VD -11.2, H/L 39/21, PP 0)

The Mavericks are a fascinating team going into this season. They have European sensation Luka Doncic on a fast track to superstardom, and famous unicorn Kristaps Porzingis, back after 20 months off from injury. Backing them up, the Mavs have a set of really interesting young players and veteran role-players. Two stars with their own questions surrounded by a motley crew of role-players? Sounds like half the teams in the league, up to and including the Lakers!

But because Doncic and Porzingis are so young, so unproven, and also so potentially perfect together, the Mavericks are almost impossible to predict. Vegas' 41.5 win estimate — almost exactly .500 — seems like the equivalent of a giant "throw your money away!" shrug. Another year of growing pains? Possible. Sneaking into the playoffs? Plausible. An utter disaster? Unlikely, but could happen. Start well, swing a trade for Bradley Beal, and be a major contender in the West? I mean … it's not off the table.

Except in NBA 2K20, it is off the table. The Mavericks are bad in the game. There's no real way around it — they never make the playoffs, let alone getting to that 41-win spot of breaking even. Only twice in my 20 seasons do they win enough games to even compete for a playoff spot, with 38 and 39 wins. Doncic makes the All-Star team several times, and that's the extent of good news for the Mavs.

Verdict: Terribly undervalued. That Vegas win total of 41.5 seems way high to me — this is too young of a team, in too tough of a conference … and even still I think 2K is ridiculous in how bad it makes this team.

26. New York Knicks (AW 29.9, VD +2.2, H/L 38/24, PP 2)

The Knicks got rid of their first home-grown star in years to make cap space to sign bigger stars and ended up with, uh, Julius Randle. They tanked to get Zion and ended up with the third pick, the much less certain prospect R.J. Barrett. In other words, this is a team without much of a plan or clear path forward.

(They do make the playoffs once, with 38 wins. And win their opening-round series! That is, at the least, hilarious.)

Verdict: But … even without the clear path, there's a glimmer of something there. The young players aren't disasters. The role-players they signed are pretty good. This probably won't be anywhere near a good team, but having the Knicks be the best of the five awful teams, at least this season? That seems okay.

27. Charlotte Hornets (AW 29.1, VD +6.1, H/L 35/24, PP 0)

The Hornets have been stuck in mediocrity for a few years, and then lost their star, Kemba Walker. The result looks like a team with a bunch of overpaid role-players that would need a lot of luck and a collapse from competitors in the East to have a chance at the playoffs.

The general Eastern collapse happens in 2K20, and the Hornets' high win total of 35 could get them into the playoffs in some especially terrible years … but it doesn't actually happen in my simmed seasons. This team is bad, at best merely "pretty bad."

Verdict: At a certain level, once a team doesn't make the playoffs, it doesn't really matter, and in that respect, the Hornets are dead-on. But this team is unlikely to be relevant in any way whatsoever, making their spot above three other teams a teensy bit overrated.

28. Cleveland Cavaliers (AW 27.9, VD +3.4, H/L 36/11, PP 0)

Since Lebron left, the Cavs have been forced into an ugly and likely long-lasting rebuilding process. This is not a good team, and they seem to, at best, have a collection of young role-players, with no clear way forward. Weird, right? Cleveland is in a bad place with one of their sports teams!

The Cavs are, unsurprisingly, bad in NBA 2K20, but not the worst, usually. There are only really two things interesting about simming this team. In one season, and one season only, they get in the mix for worst team of all time, only winning 11 games (the record worst is 9). The other is that, when fully simmed, they never trade Kevin Love, who is almost certainly going to be considered on the trading block for the entire year.

Verdict: Bad as expected, so that's just fine. But the lack of aggression from the CPU trading is a little odd, although because I'm simming single seasons instead of a career where draft picks can be traded, maybe that makes sense.

29. Washington Wizards (AW 26.15, VD -0.35, H/L 37/18, PP 0)

Remember above when I noted how strange it was that the Wizards and Nuggets had pretty much the same overall rating? Well, unlike the Lakers, that one was not predictive — the Wizards, despite the 18th-best rating, are almost the worst team in the league. This is … pretty much accurate to everyone's expectations for this team, which has one of the most difficult rebuilding jobs in the league in front of it.

Verdict: I kinda like that the Wizards are borderline playoff-level in a couple seasons, but putrid otherwise. The question marks around this team might lead them to mediocre in a best-case scenario … but not often. Perfect rating, with the exception of the same thing as the Cavs and Love above, where they never trade Beal on their own.

30. Memphis Grizzlies (AW 24.25, VD -3.25, H/L 32/17, PP 0)

This offseason, the Grizz finally traded the last piece of their "Grit 'n' Grind" era, with Mike Conley going to the Jazz. They're well set up for whatever their next era might be, thanks to potential young stars Jaren Jackson and Ja Morant. But that's a few years away, if it happens.

NBA 2K20 treats the Grizzlies as the worst team in the league by average wins — but this is slightly misleading. The four other worst teams above them are all in the East, and all pad their wins by playing each other more often. By virtue of being the only awful team in the West, the Grizzlies end up with the worst record.

Verdict: Once again, can't complain about a bad team looking bad in the game. Only surprise is that this team doesn't get rid of veteran leader Andre Iguodala at all, either via trade or buyout — the latter an option that AI teams don't seem to use at all. Morant does win Rookie of the Year a few times, especially if Zion gets hurt, a good touch for a team that might compete in, uh, 2023.

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